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S&P flat at 7,805, Dow -0.35%. Mixed bank earnings and a memory-chip selloff on China CXMT fears. September CPI due Wednesday.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip on a tech and optical/memory selloff; Dow gains on rotation as oil climbs ahead of bank earnings and CPI.

Stocks rebound from Thursday's tech selloff: Dow +0.83%, S&P 500 +0.59% near record, health care and real estate lead.

Stocks gave back record highs as the 10-year yield hit a 2002 high near 5.3%; Russell 2000 -1.31%, Dow -0.66%, SPX -0.22%.

Nasdaq records on tech strength as the 10-year hits a 52-week high near 5.32%; SPX +0.66%, PTC +33% on Schneider deal.

Yields at 2007 highs and weak consumer confidence pressure SPX and Dow; FICO collapses, AI optics and cruise names rally.

Stocks fall as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan; oil surges, 10-yr hits 5.27%, gold slides 3%, SPX ~7,684.

Stocks closed mixed as Treasury yields hit 2007 highs; Oracle, MGM, TD Synnex slid while energy and healthcare held up. Costco beat after the close.

"Priced for a 7% move" isn't the market's forecast — it's a quote for transferring risk. What the implied move is actually made of, and how to read it.

# Why I've been quiet — and the one thing that survived I haven't posted in a while. That wasn't drift or burnout — it was deliberate. We hit a finding in the research that I thought could matter, and I didn't want to say a word about it until it had been beaten on, hard, from every angle. Talking first and validating later is how people end up believing their own backtests. So I went quiet and put it through the wringer. It survived. So now I'll talk. Here's the short ver

Non-Repainting Pivot Detection in ES Futures: A Regression-Slope and ATR-Gated Approach with Session-Conditioned Behavior Classification MarketFragments Research Team - MarketFragments.com | MF Strategy Factory · May 2026 Author: mcdon030 Editor's note: All numeric figures in this draft have been reconciled against the source CSVs (`slope_pivot_sweep_ES_full_5min_continuous_UNadjusted_5yr.csv`, `session_gate_sweep_*`, `session_trail_backtest_*`, `pivot_validation_v2_by_sessi

Out-of-Sample Evaluation of Lookback Length as a Predictive Parameter in Regression-Based Pivot Detection: An LSTM Negative Result MarketFragments Research Team · MarketFragments.com | MF Strategy Factory · May 2026 Author: mcdon030 Editor's note. Companion paper to *Non-Repainting Pivot Detection in ES Futures* (https://www.marketfragments.com/post/mf-strategy-factory-main-pivot-engine-paper) ,All numeric values have been reconciled against `length_opt_ES_full_5min_continuou

Stops cluster at obvious levels. Sometimes price reaches for them. The trick is separating real sweep-and-reclaim setups from post-hoc narrative.

Bias: Modestly higher into the open as traders lean into the Trump–Xi summit kicking off this morning. Equities are bid across the board with the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all firm in early trade — but the tape is leaning on geopolitics rather than data. Crude is steady above $101/bbl with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, and a slightly hot jobless-claims print at 8:30 ET took some heat off the soft-landing narrative without derailing it. Overnight Futures Snapshot E

Futures slip on Iran headlines as WTI nears $100; Asia semis rip into record close. MNDY, YETI, WWW report BMO. CPI Tuesday is the marquee event.

Hot April NFP fueled megacap tech to fresh records as small caps lagged; Iran ceasefire fraying, oil chopped, CPI Tuesday is the next catalyst.

Futures firm on US-Iran peace hopes ahead of the April jobs report at 8:30 ET. ENB and TU lead pre-market earnings. Key levels for SPX, NDX, DJI, RTY.

Stocks took a breather from record highs as the Iran-deal trade lost fresh catalyst; financials lagged on Schwab, energy slipped with crude.

Bear divergences on /ES 5m carry +5.9pt edge across 180 days. Bull divergences carry -7.1pt. Same 6-method ensemble, same gates, opposite outcomes.

Bias: Modestly higher into the open. Risk-on sentiment from yesterday's record close is carrying overnight, with Dow futures up ~80 points and Nasdaq futures holding gains. The big macro driver remains Iran peace-deal speculation, which crushed crude yesterday and lifted broad equities to fresh highs. Overnight Futures Snapshot YM (Dow): ~49,990 — opened 49,507, overnight range 49,465–50,063 (up ~80 pts vs. cash close at 49,910.59) NQ (Nasdaq-100): ~28,720 — opened 28,704, ho