Pre-Market Brief — Friday, May 8, 2026

Bias: Cautiously bullish into the open, but the April jobs report at 8:30 ET is the binary event. Futures are firm on continued US-Iran peace optimism and a record-chasing tape, yet a hot or cold print could whip the entire session. Trade the reaction, not the prediction.

Overnight Futures Snapshot

• ES (S&P 500): ~7,400.75, +0.51%. Holding above yesterday's cash close near 7,337 with steady bid through Asia and Europe.

• NQ (Nasdaq 100): ~28,897.75, +0.75%. Tech outperforming again on AI and semis strength.

• YM (Dow): ~49,857, +0.32%. Sitting just below the 50,000 milestone after Thursday's brief tag and reject.

• RTY (Russell 2000): Higher with risk-on tone after IWM's +1.47% Thursday close at 2,836.80.

• WTI Crude: ~$95.46, +0.7%, stabilizing after Wednesday's 7%+ drop on Iran-deal headlines.

• Gold: Spot near $4,756, holding firm as a hedge into the data print.

Today's Economic Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (April) — consensus +60K to +70K vs. +178K prior. The headline event of the day.

• 8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (April) — consensus 4.3% (prior 4.3%).

• 8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings (April) — wage inflation read; watch for any upside surprise.

• 8:30 AM ET: Average Workweek and Labor Force Participation — secondary but matters for the rate path.

• 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March) — late-day, second-tier.

Pre-Market Earnings (BMO)

• ENB — Enbridge — Q1 results before the bell at 9 AM ET call. Watch DCF per share guidance and any pipeline backlog updates against the $40B figure.

• TU — Telus — Canadian telecom Q1; consensus near $0.16 EPS on ~$3.6B revenue. Subscriber adds and capex commentary in focus.

• AAON — AAON Inc. — HVAC equipment; commercial construction read-through and backlog trend.

• FLNC — Fluence Energy — battery storage; guidance and project pipeline are the swing factor.

• IBP — Installed Building Products — housing/construction proxy; insulation volume and pricing.

• PLNT — Planet Fitness — consumer health; same-store sales and member growth.

• SHAK — Shake Shack — consumer discretionary; comps, traffic, and 2026 unit guidance.

Watchlist & Themes

• Geopolitics: Any concrete US-Iran deal headline is the dominant tape-setter. Risk-on continuation depends on follow-through.

• Energy: Crude has unwound a meaningful chunk of the war premium. XLE relative strength versus SPX worth tracking after the jobs print.

• Semis & AI: NVDA, AVGO, AMD leading NQ overnight. Watch SMH for trend continuation or distribution.

• Rates & banks: If NFP comes in soft, 2-year yields drop and cyclicals/banks may rotate; KRE and XLF in focus.

• Small caps: RTY had a strong Thursday. A weak jobs number could be a double-edged catalyst — bullish on rate cuts, bearish on growth.

Key Levels for the Open

• SPX: Resistance 7,365 (record close) and 7,400 round number. Support 7,337 (Thu close), then 7,300 and 7,250.

• NDX: Resistance at recent record near 26,500 cash. Support at 25,800 and 25,500.

• DJI: Resistance at the 50,000 psychological level. Support 49,500 and 49,000.

• RTY: Resistance 2,860 then 2,900. Support 2,800 and 2,750.

Macro Context

The market continues to ride a peace-trade narrative: hopes of an imminent US-Iran agreement that could reopen Strait of Hormuz flows and pull the war premium out of crude. That tailwind has powered fresh records this week, but indices are now extended and concentration in mega-cap tech remains a risk. The April employment report is the next catalyst — a soft print would be read as confirmation of a slowing-but-not-stalling economy and would likely keep rate-cut bets alive into mid-year, while a hot number could ignite a sharp curve repricing and put the recent record run on hold. Position sizing matters more than directional conviction this morning.

Trade safe. Plan first, then execute. — Marketfragments