Pre-Market Brief — Monday, May 11, 2026

Bias: Cautious-balanced into a record close. US futures slipped overnight after Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, lifting WTI back toward $100 and re-anchoring a geopolitical risk premium — but Asia leaned risk-on as Korean semis ripped (Kospi +4.3%). With SPX and Nasdaq sitting at fresh records and April CPI on deck Tuesday, the tape has little cushion for a hot core surprise.

Overnight Futures Snapshot

• ES: modestly lower, ~-0.2%, holding above 7,380 zone

• NQ: ~-0.2%, hovering near 26,150 area

• YM: -0.3%, the relative laggard overnight

• RTY: flat to slightly lower, ~2,395 area

• WTI Crude: ~$99.99/bbl, sharp bid on Iran ceasefire rejection; Strait of Hormuz still in focus

• Gold: above $4,700/oz after Friday volatility

Today's Economic Calendar

• Light data day: no tier-1 US releases scheduled for Monday

• 3-Yr Treasury Note Auction: 1:00 PM ET — watch demand at the front end with CPI 24 hours away

• Fed speakers: monitor headlines; succession debate around the Powell/Warsh transition heats up this week

• Pre-positioning: April CPI lands Tuesday 8:30 ET — consensus +0.6% m/m headline, +0.3% m/m core

Pre-Market Earnings (BMO)

• MNDY — monday.com — Q1; consensus EPS $0.93, rev $339M (+20% y/y). Call 8:30 ET. Watch enterprise seat growth, AI product traction, FY guide.

• YETI — YETI Holdings — Q1; tariff pass-through and DTC margin read for premium consumer durables.

• WWW — Wolverine World Wide — Q1; Merrell and Saucony momentum, inventory health.

• LUNR — Intuitive Machines — Q1; lunar contract pipeline visibility, cash runway, NASA awards.

• CSIQ — Canadian Solar — Q1; module ASPs, tariff exposure, utility-scale backlog.

• NVMI — Nova Ltd — Q1; semi-cap metrology demand and AI capex pull-through.

• VIK — Viking Holdings — Q1; cruise pricing power, forward bookings, fuel cost commentary.

Watchlist & Themes

• Energy / Defense: WTI back near $100 on Iran headlines — XLE, OIH, and defense primes (LMT, NOC, RTX) in focus.

• Semis / AI: SK Hynix +11%, Kospi +4.3% overnight signals no fatigue in AI capex bid — NVDA, AVGO, MU, SMH tactically.

• Inflation-sensitive: CPI Tuesday means rate-sensitive financials, homebuilders, and long-duration tech are pre-positioning.

• Consumer discretionary: YETI and WWW prints stress-test the tariff pass-through narrative for premium goods.

• Geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz status and Iran rhetoric remain the dominant intraday headline risk.

Key Levels for the Open

• SPX: Friday close 7,399 (record). Support 7,370 / 7,340. Resistance 7,420 / 7,450.

• Nasdaq Comp: Friday close 26,247 (record). Support 26,100 / 25,900. Resistance 26,400.

• Dow: watch the 44k pivot zone; lags semis if AI bid persists.

• RTY: 2,400 is the bull/bear inflection — failure points to 2,370.

Macro Context

The week is bookended by inflation and Fed leadership. Tuesday's April CPI is the marquee print, with energy spillover from the Iran conflict expected to lift headline; a hot core read complicates a chair-succession debate already tilted hawkish under the Warsh nomination, with the full Senate vote expected this week and Powell's term up Friday, May 15. April PPI Wednesday and retail sales / import prices Thursday round out the macro lineup. Beneath all of this, the AI capex bid remains the structural support — Asian semis are flashing no fatigue — while oil volatility and Middle East headlines stay positioned to deliver intraday squalls. Risk-reward into CPI: leave room for two-way action; a record close offers little cushion if core surprises to the upside.

Trade safe. Plan first, then execute. — Marketfragments