Pre-Market Brief — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Bias: Modestly higher into the open. Risk-on sentiment from yesterday's record close is carrying overnight, with Dow futures up ~80 points and Nasdaq futures holding gains. The big macro driver remains Iran peace-deal speculation, which crushed crude yesterday and lifted broad equities to fresh highs.

Overnight Futures Snapshot

• YM (Dow): ~49,990 — opened 49,507, overnight range 49,465–50,063 (up ~80 pts vs. cash close at 49,910.59)

• NQ (Nasdaq-100): ~28,720 — opened 28,704, holding the breakout from yesterday's tech rally

• ES (S&P): firm on the back of yesterday's +1.46% record close at 7,365.12

• RTY (Russell): quiet after yesterday's record close at 2,888.24

• WTI: $95 area, still digesting yesterday's ~7% selloff on Iran headlines

Today's Economic Calendar

• 8:30 AM ET — Initial Jobless Claims (last print: 189K, four-year low signal of labor strength)

• 10:00 AM ET — February Construction Spending

• 10:00 AM ET — Wholesale Inventories (Mar)

• Light Fed-speaker calendar, no FOMC decision today

Pre-Market Earnings (BMO)

Ticker / Company / What to watch

• SHEL — Shell — Energy guidance against the WTI selloff

• MCD — McDonald's — US comp sales, value-menu traction

• GILD — Gilead Sciences — HIV franchise, oncology pipeline

• MCK — McKesson — Distribution margins, GLP-1 channel

• CRWV — CoreWeave — AI infrastructure capex commentary

• COIN — Coinbase Global — Trading volume, subscription mix

• ABNB — Airbnb — Summer booking trajectory, take rate

After the close: a heavy slate including SUIG and several mid-cap names. Full list on the earnings calendar.

Watchlist & Themes

• Energy / Oil names — XLE, XOM, CVX, OXY. The Iran-deal narrative dominated yesterday's tape with WTI down sharply. Watch for either a relief bounce or continuation lower.

• Tech / AI infrastructure — NVDA, AMD, AVGO, plus CRWV reporting today. Momentum still intact from yesterday's NDX leadership.

• Small caps — IWM, RTY. Russell printed a fresh record yesterday; trend traders watching for follow-through above 2,890.

• Restaurants — MCD reporting BMO sets the tone for the consumer cohort.

Key Levels for the Open

• SPX: Above 7,365 keeps the bid intact; first support at 7,330, then 7,295.

• NDX: 28,650 is the line in the sand; below it, expect a rotation back to defensives.

• Russell 2000: 2,888 is the breakout pivot. Hold above and the small-cap leadership story continues.

• WTI: $94 is the next major support if Iran headlines push lower; reclaim of $98 would unwind a chunk of yesterday's selloff.

Macro Context

The market continues to discount a meaningful step-down in Middle East risk premium. That has two second-order effects: weaker oil flows into lower input costs for transports, airlines, and cyclicals; and a softer dollar tone supports cross-currency risk assets. Until the deal is either confirmed or off the table, expect this to be the single largest cross-asset driver. Jobless claims at 8:30 will frame the rate path — another sub-200K print keeps soft-landing chatter alive.

Trade safe. Plan first, then execute. — *Marketfragments*